5 things to start your day
China promises to hit back over U.S. tech blacklist,
Trump’s Syria move sows confusion,
…….and Johnson prepares for Brexit talks to collapse.
Not off to a good start
Any hopes of a major breakthrough at this week’s high-level trade talks between the U.S. and China in Washington are looking increasingly forlorn after the Trump administration blacklisted eight Chinese technology giants. China indicated it would hit back against the move, with foreign ministry spokesman Geng Shuang telling reporters to “stay tuned.” With the delegation from Beijing already trying to temper expectations, the latest tit-for-tat promise signals the uphill battle to secure meaningful progress on cross-border trade.
Policy uncertainty
President Donald Trump’s surprise announcement that U.S. troops would stay out of the way of a Turkish invasion of northern Syria has caused consternation and confusion among his Republican allies. Senator Lindsey Graham and former ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley were among those questioning the decision, which was seen as abandoning the country’s Kurdish allies. For the president, who attempted to change course via Twitter, the support of Republican senators may be essential for defeating any impeachment proceedings.
Already dead?
The chances of a Brexit deal seem to be hurtling towards zero, with British Prime Minister Boris Johnson telling German Chancellor Angela Merkel that an agreement is essentially impossible. An unnamed official from the prime minister’s office told the Spectator magazine that the government is preparing for talks to collapse, which they will blame on Irish and European leaders. The pound fell against the dollar.
Markets mixed
Overnight the MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.6% while Japan’s Topix index closed 0.9% higher. China’s Shanghai Composite Index added 0.3% in the first session after a week-long holiday. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index was 0.6% lower at 5:50 a.m. Eastern Time with every sector of the gauge posting a loss. S&P 500 futures pointed to a drop at the open, the 10-year Treasury yield was at 1.539% and gold was higher.
Coming up…
At 8:30 a.m., producer price data for September is published which may shed some light on Thursday’s inflation number. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell all speak at various events today. One thing that is not coming up is U.S. basketball on China’s state TV network CCTV after it said it would halt broadcasts of NBA games given the intensifying backlash over a tweet sent by Daryl Morey, general manager of the Houston Rockets, in support of the Hong Kong protests.
What we’ve been reading
This is what’s caught our eye over the last 24 hours.
- A repeat of 2018’s stock rout is likely coming, veteran investor says.
- The battles ahead over what Congress demands of Trump.
- Softbank’s damage from Uber, WeWork could exceed $5 billion.
- Hong Kong’s stock exchange drops its bid for the LSE.
- Big oil is selling its dirty assets but they aren’t going away.
- The plane crash that helped one man take over a nation.
- Why NASA is annoyed about Elon Musk’s giant rocket.
And finally, here’s what Lorcan’s interested in this morning
There’s a lot to be worried about. As usual. But it seems that markets are starting to take some of the myriad risks — trade, economic growth, Brexit — more seriously and prepping for the worst. In the U.K., investors are pulling money from active funds and pouring cash into Blackrock’s FTSE 100 ETF, a switch which allows them to maintain exposure to multinational exporters while having much better liquidity than they would have otherwise. A boom in defensive bets within the S&P 500 Index — basically range-bound since June — shows how cautious market players have become. Warnings of repeat of the late-2018 sell-off are growing. Again, liquidity is a concern, with the Fed’s recent operations putting a cap on the immediate repo problem while keeping investors on their toes for another flareup. With everyone becoming more aware of event risk and the propensity of risk itself spreading through the market faster than ever, according to a report from Principal Global Investors, investors seem psychologically positioned for a difficult quarter.